After experiencing the 2009 crisis, chemical companies are full of expectations for 2010. For most chemical companies, the company experienced a series of challenges last year as the global financial crisis spread to the real economy.
At the beginning of 2009, due to the recession in the construction of two important end markets and the automotive industry, the demand for most chemical products fell to the lowest level in five years. With the economic recession, companies are rapidly cutting inventory on the one hand, and on the other hand waiting for raw material prices to further decline. The sharp drop in product prices and sales at the same time has seriously affected corporate profits. In the first quarter of 2009, all chemical companies encountered financial difficulties, and those companies in highly leveraged financial situations even faced life and death.
With the stabilisation of commodity prices, companies gradually stopped mass destocking in the second quarter of 2009 and started to replenish their stocks appropriately, thereby stimulating demand to pick up. In 2009, the global economy has bottomed out. The reports of various agencies and year-end forecasts point out that the global economy is showing signs of recovery and that the re-stocking of various industries and industries will lead to an increase in demand for chemicals in 2010.
Terminal market performance varies
The increase in the production capacity of petrochemical products in the Middle East and Asia in 2010 will inevitably lead to excess global capacity. However, for the chemical industry, not all chemicals will increase in demand in 2010 because the end markets perform differently. According to the different performances in this economic recession, the related industries can be divided into four categories: First, industries that are not affected by the economic downturn, such as the pharmaceutical and food industries, have a relatively strong demand in these markets, and thus serve these two industries. The production of pharmaceutical intermediates and food additives in the industry will continue to grow; the second is the standard industry, which has reached the bottom early in this economic recession, and has recovered with the need to rebuild companies' inventories, such as semiconductors and petroleum products. Third, the new normal industry, which has undergone major adjustments before it is expected to resume growth in industries such as automotive and construction. Fourth, there is an industry with potential for recovery, that is, when the stocks are recently bottomed out and rebuilt in 2010, Industries that will be restored, such as consumer durables, computers, electronic equipment and apparel industries. Among them, the fourth industry that has the potential for recovery has a relatively large number of variables in 2010. They may either be transformed into standard industries or transformed into new normal industries.
Similarly, the demand for chemicals in various regions in 2010 is also quite different. Over the past 10 years, the annual average demand for ethylene in the Chinese market has grown at a rate of over 10%, while in developed regions, the demand has grown at a rate of less than 2%. In 2009, the developed countries were hit harder than the emerging economies by the crisis, which will further widen the difference in growth rates between developed and emerging economies.
Global overcapacity
Although emerging economies can still maintain a high market growth rate, as the growth of production capacity far exceeds the growth rate of demand, competition among manufacturers everywhere will be unavoidable. This kind of competition in 2010 will further increase global petrochemical capacity overcapacity, at the same time it will also accelerate the pace of restructuring in the chemical industry and prompt the global chemical industry to change.
For developed regions without new installations and production plans, manufacturers in the region must face product mix optimization in the face of new market conditions. Continuous asset restructuring will not only change the ownership of the device, but will also allow some companies to enter. Bankruptcy proceedings. In 2010, the impact of imports of low-cost petrochemical products in the Middle East was most severe in Europe because North America had set up trade barriers for low-cost imported products – high logistics costs and profitable natural gas condensate (NGL) arbitrage. Tools, which will provide more protection for producers in the region.
It can be foreseen that in the future, as Asian and Middle Eastern manufacturers’ products continue to increase in global market share, they will attract more talents in developed regions and introduce more advanced technologies, thus consolidating their position in the world.
Crisis promotes reorganization
Before the recession began, the global petrochemical product price began to rise sharply from the turn of the century, and chemical manufacturers are also accustomed to the company's business rising year after year. After experiencing this economic recession, the industry performance no longer converges, and different regions will have different trajectories. The growth rate in developed regions will be lower than in previous years. Product price fluctuations will become a normal state and global competition will become increasingly fierce.
The fierce competition is likely to cause industrial integration, and those old factories that are not competitive will face the fate of shutting down. Like other industries, the chemical industry has experienced unprecedented economic difficulties and will continue to face challenges. Due to the different end markets and regions served, the future demand for various chemicals will be mixed. In this process, some chemical companies with obvious advantages will win.
At the beginning of 2009, due to the recession in the construction of two important end markets and the automotive industry, the demand for most chemical products fell to the lowest level in five years. With the economic recession, companies are rapidly cutting inventory on the one hand, and on the other hand waiting for raw material prices to further decline. The sharp drop in product prices and sales at the same time has seriously affected corporate profits. In the first quarter of 2009, all chemical companies encountered financial difficulties, and those companies in highly leveraged financial situations even faced life and death.
With the stabilisation of commodity prices, companies gradually stopped mass destocking in the second quarter of 2009 and started to replenish their stocks appropriately, thereby stimulating demand to pick up. In 2009, the global economy has bottomed out. The reports of various agencies and year-end forecasts point out that the global economy is showing signs of recovery and that the re-stocking of various industries and industries will lead to an increase in demand for chemicals in 2010.
Terminal market performance varies
The increase in the production capacity of petrochemical products in the Middle East and Asia in 2010 will inevitably lead to excess global capacity. However, for the chemical industry, not all chemicals will increase in demand in 2010 because the end markets perform differently. According to the different performances in this economic recession, the related industries can be divided into four categories: First, industries that are not affected by the economic downturn, such as the pharmaceutical and food industries, have a relatively strong demand in these markets, and thus serve these two industries. The production of pharmaceutical intermediates and food additives in the industry will continue to grow; the second is the standard industry, which has reached the bottom early in this economic recession, and has recovered with the need to rebuild companies' inventories, such as semiconductors and petroleum products. Third, the new normal industry, which has undergone major adjustments before it is expected to resume growth in industries such as automotive and construction. Fourth, there is an industry with potential for recovery, that is, when the stocks are recently bottomed out and rebuilt in 2010, Industries that will be restored, such as consumer durables, computers, electronic equipment and apparel industries. Among them, the fourth industry that has the potential for recovery has a relatively large number of variables in 2010. They may either be transformed into standard industries or transformed into new normal industries.
Similarly, the demand for chemicals in various regions in 2010 is also quite different. Over the past 10 years, the annual average demand for ethylene in the Chinese market has grown at a rate of over 10%, while in developed regions, the demand has grown at a rate of less than 2%. In 2009, the developed countries were hit harder than the emerging economies by the crisis, which will further widen the difference in growth rates between developed and emerging economies.
Global overcapacity
Although emerging economies can still maintain a high market growth rate, as the growth of production capacity far exceeds the growth rate of demand, competition among manufacturers everywhere will be unavoidable. This kind of competition in 2010 will further increase global petrochemical capacity overcapacity, at the same time it will also accelerate the pace of restructuring in the chemical industry and prompt the global chemical industry to change.
For developed regions without new installations and production plans, manufacturers in the region must face product mix optimization in the face of new market conditions. Continuous asset restructuring will not only change the ownership of the device, but will also allow some companies to enter. Bankruptcy proceedings. In 2010, the impact of imports of low-cost petrochemical products in the Middle East was most severe in Europe because North America had set up trade barriers for low-cost imported products – high logistics costs and profitable natural gas condensate (NGL) arbitrage. Tools, which will provide more protection for producers in the region.
It can be foreseen that in the future, as Asian and Middle Eastern manufacturers’ products continue to increase in global market share, they will attract more talents in developed regions and introduce more advanced technologies, thus consolidating their position in the world.
Crisis promotes reorganization
Before the recession began, the global petrochemical product price began to rise sharply from the turn of the century, and chemical manufacturers are also accustomed to the company's business rising year after year. After experiencing this economic recession, the industry performance no longer converges, and different regions will have different trajectories. The growth rate in developed regions will be lower than in previous years. Product price fluctuations will become a normal state and global competition will become increasingly fierce.
The fierce competition is likely to cause industrial integration, and those old factories that are not competitive will face the fate of shutting down. Like other industries, the chemical industry has experienced unprecedented economic difficulties and will continue to face challenges. Due to the different end markets and regions served, the future demand for various chemicals will be mixed. In this process, some chemical companies with obvious advantages will win.
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