Reporting our view on the LED industry is "the first half of the year is not worried about demand, do not worry about supply in the second half of the year", recently we investigated the LED industry chain, entering the industry peak season in March, the strong orders of lighting manufacturers verified the first half of our views, and The entangled mentality of chip manufacturers for expansion has made us more optimistic about the supply and demand relationship of LED chips this year;
LED lighting demand is strong: In 2014, the price of LED lighting products further declined. The price of 5WLED bulbs replacing 40W incandescent lamps has reached 10-15 yuan, and the terminal price of 16WT8 lamps has dropped below 40 yuan. Actively vying for market share, LED lighting products shipments have increased significantly. We expect that the LED business of several large domestic lighting companies will achieve a growth of around 100 in 2014, and the revenue ratio will be close to 50;
Investment in upstream chip equipment is still at a low point: Although the demand for LED chips has continued to flourish since the second half of 2013, the orders of Veeco and Aixtron equipment manufacturers are still at the bottom of history, and the number of MOCVD shipments in the fourth quarter has further dropped to 40 units. There are not many chip manufacturers who have real desire to expand production;
The expansion of the chip factory is in a tangled phase: the strong demand for LED lighting has driven the demand for chips. In March, the first- and second-line chip factories have basically entered the full production stage, due to the introduction of new devices with higher cost performance for the two major equipment manufacturers, Veeco and Aixtron. It is expected that the chip factory is currently in a hesitant phase of capacity expansion. We expect this state to continue to the finalization of MOCVD new models, which will increase the possibility of tight supply of chips when the peak season arrives;
Investment suggestion LED is the most certain industry this year. Entering the traditional peak season of LED in March, the rapid growth of orders will begin to be realized. We continue to recommend lighting manufacturers in the international supply chain system: Sunlight Lighting, Foshan Lighting;
LED chip manufacturers are currently in the hesitant stage of expanding production, which makes the possibility of tight supply of chips in the peak season of the industry increase greatly. It is also the best time to invest in chip manufacturers. We recommend Aoyang Shunchang, Sanan Optoelectronics, Dehao Runda .
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