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Stimulate the Bush administration to advance large-scale tax refunds

Paulson expressed optimism that the tax rebate policy would begin to influence the U.S. economy by late June or early July. The U.S. government started distributing a total of nearly $110 billion in tax rebates to 130 million American families and individuals on the 28th, aiming to boost a struggling economy with what some called a "stimulus shot." "Clearly, our economy is slowing down, but we saw the signs and acted," said Bush. As a key part of the $168 billion stimulus package, the tax rebate plan was originally set to be distributed in early May. However, President Bush, who had recently left office, decided to accelerate the release. The goal was to quickly stimulate consumer spending. Under the plan, most Americans could receive different amounts based on income and family size: up to $600 for individuals, $1,200 for couples, and an additional $300 per child. All refunds were issued in batches based on social security numbers. Those who opted for direct deposit received their payments on the 28th, with the last batch going out by May 16. For those receiving checks, the IRS began sending them starting May 9, with the final batch arriving on July 11. Economists have mixed opinions about the effectiveness of tax rebates in boosting the economy. Professors Joel Slemmrod and Matthew Shapiro from the University of Michigan studied a similar 2001 policy and found that many people saved the money or used it to pay off debt. According to a recent survey by Associated Press AOL, 35% of respondents said they planned to use their rebates for bills or debt this year, compared to 27% a year ago. Other polls showed that most Americans intended to spend only 25% to 30% of the rebate immediately, saving the rest for later. Slemmrod warned that if people saved or paid off debt instead of spending, the intended impact of the program would be reduced. The Congressional Budget Office also noted that the effectiveness of the rebate was uncertain. Tax rebates have long been used in the U.S. as a tool to stimulate growth during economic downturns. Historical data shows that only 12% to 24% of 1975 rebates were spent in the same season, while 20% to 40% of 2001 rebates were used within the same period. This year’s rebate program was the largest in U.S. history, with over $170 billion planned over two years. The first round was expected to exceed $110 billion, and it was more targeted at lower-income households, who are more likely to spend the money. Analysts estimate that between 20% and 50% of the rebates will be spent within four to six months, with potential effects visible in retail sales as early as May or June. Paulson predicted that the policy would start influencing the economy by late June or early July, potentially creating 500,000 to 600,000 jobs this year. Some experts believe the rebate could boost GDP growth by 2%, while others are more cautious. Bank of America expects growth below 1%, and Merrill Lynch even predicts less than 0.5%. Although many economists argue the U.S. is in a recession, Bush insists it's just a slowdown, not a full-blown recession. Experts caution that any impact from the stimulus will be temporary, lasting up to six months. If underlying economic conditions don’t improve, the effect of the rebate may fade quickly.

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