Artificial Intelligence
Ethylene oxide: steady and steady rise
In recent years, China's fine chemical industry has experienced rapid growth, particularly in the surfactants sector, which has led to a growing demand for ethylene oxide. As a result, the domestic ethylene oxide market has faced supply shortages. In 2007, the market continued the price trends from 2006, with prices gradually increasing throughout the year. The positive momentum of the ethylene oxide industry is expected to persist into 2008.
During the first quarter of 2007, ethylene oxide prices saw minor fluctuations, then dipped slightly in the second quarter before rising steadily in the third. By the fourth quarter, prices surged and reached new highs. The average price for ethylene oxide in 2007 was 14,437 yuan per ton, representing a 9.1% increase compared to the previous year. Although production in 2007 reached approximately 600,000 tons—up from 2006—the sharp rise in downstream demand kept the market under tight supply conditions. This shortage became especially evident during the second half of the year, leading to both higher volumes and increased prices.
In 2008, the production capacity of ethylene oxide/ethylene glycol co-generation plants in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai is expected to grow slightly. If demand continues to outpace supply, ethylene oxide prices are likely to see a steady or modest upward trend. Overall, the domestic ethylene oxide market holds several advantages this year:
First, demand is on the rise. Despite the completion of several new ethylene oxide/ethylene glycol plants, the current production capacity remains relatively low, and output still falls short of demand. The imbalance between supply and demand is expected to persist in the near future, maintaining a strong production and sales environment.
Second, the market is becoming more regulated. 2008 marks a key year for meeting the energy-saving and emission reduction targets set in the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan." The government will impose stricter controls on new projects, and companies failing to meet environmental standards may be phased out. Additionally, the National Development and Reform Commission’s 2005 guidance clearly limits the construction of ethylene oxide/ethylene glycol units below 132,000 tons per year. These measures are expected to help stabilize the market and support the growth of larger enterprises.
Third, the development of fine chemicals is gaining momentum. China is focusing on expanding its fine chemical industry, which plays a crucial role in restructuring existing products, improving economic benefits, and driving national economic growth. This push is expected to boost demand for ethylene glycol, synthetic detergents, and ethylene oxide-based surfactants, further supporting the upward trend in ethylene oxide prices.
Fourth, the centralized sales system under Sinopec Group is expected to contribute to market stability. With this system in place, ethylene oxide prices are likely to rise steadily or slightly in 2008. Industry experts predict an average price of around 14,800 yuan per ton for the year.
However, the market also faces some challenges. Rising crude oil prices could push up the cost of ethylene and other downstream products, putting pressure on ethylene oxide producers. Additionally, if the deposit reserve ratio increases, it could affect the liquidity of some downstream companies. Moreover, China’s ethylene oxide production capacity remains relatively low, and there is still a gap in production technology, energy efficiency, and material consumption when compared to advanced countries.
Currently, ethylene oxide and ethylene glycol are produced together, and their price relationship is expected to remain closely linked. Producers should monitor the market environment and adjust the optimal production ratio between the two products to maximize efficiency and profitability.
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